We’re trying to reconcile these two statements in an otherwise informative piece summarizing exit poll results by Tim Alberta in National Review Online.
That adds up to 62 percent of college-educated GOP voters voting against Trump [in New Hampshire] — and the overall opposition is roughly two-thirds when factoring in smaller chunks also won by Carly Fiorina and Ben Carson.
He continues to excel with non-college-educated Republicans: He won 28 percent of them in Iowa . . . and 41 percent in New Hampshire. These numbers, on top of public polling, show Trump is best positioned to win pluralities (and eventually majorities) of that crucial demographic moving forward
Although Alberta presents these results in the context of a finding that Trump won every single significant demographic in New Hampshire, it betrays a bias, endemic of late in NR, that holds that the only possible supporters of Trump are “struggling, underemployed” “working-class whites,” “people who have struggled. . . decrying the grasping indifference of a cosseted elite.”
Under the subheading “College-Educated Republicans Know Who They’re Against. But Who Are They For?,” Alberta refers to the first-place 29% of the vote in this group that Trump received in Hew Hampshire (and a bit less in Iowa) as a “hard ceiling,” but yet the 28% of the non-college-educated vote that he received in New Hampshire (and a bit more in Iowa) is a floor: Trump is “best positioned to win pluralities (and eventually majorities) of that crucial demographic moving forward.”
Huh? Of course the non-college-educated vote is greater in absolute numbers (though not among New Hampshire Republican primary voters last week), and hence more important, than the college-educated vote, but treating Trump’s results among these groups so differently at this point reflects nothing more than the author’s own bias about who could possibly be a Trump supporter.
Math is hard: in a race with more than half a dozen candidates, in which one gets a solid plurality of all demographic groups, it is pretty illogical that those pluralities would fail to increase to majorities if the number of candidates were to get down to two.